International Energy Agency: Times have changed, China leads
After the coal and oil eras, the world is rapidly entering the era of electricity.
According to a report by Nikkei Asia on October 16th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual World Energy Outlook report on the same day, stating that the energy market is entering a "power era" led by China, and it is expected that global annual demand will accelerate, with an increase equivalent to Japan's annual energy consumption.
The Paris based intergovernmental organization wrote that electricity is rapidly replacing fossil fuels, which raises a question: Is the growth rate of clean energy generation enough to keep up with global emission reduction targets? As of the end of 2023, global low emission energy production has only increased by 4800 terawatt hours compared to 2010, but power generation has increased by nearly 8400 terawatt hours during the same period.
At the same time as releasing the report, IEA Director Fatih Birol issued a statement saying, "Almost all energy stories in the world we are currently in are essentially Chinese stories
According to the IEA's forecast, global electricity demand will nearly double from 2023 to reach 50 trillion kilowatt hours by 2050. The growth rate of this demand is twice that of other energy sources, with China accounting for two-thirds of it. The International Energy Agency attributes this to the growth of electric vehicles, increased cooling demand, and expansion of data centers.
The report points out that China's electricity demand is far greater than any other country, so the speed of China's transition to clean energy is of great significance. When the growth of clean electricity in China exceeds the overall electricity demand, it will be a milestone day.
The World Energy Outlook predicts that by 2030, emerging markets and developing economies may account for nearly 80% of the global increase in electricity demand, with China alone potentially accounting for over 45%. At that time, low emission energy will provide over 50% of the world's electricity, while the use of fossil fuels will peak.
Asia has become the focus of global oil and gas trade. Currently, Asia's oil imports are more than twice that of the two largest importing countries in Europe. Although coal usage in other regions is almost decreasing, India and Southeast Asian countries are still highly dependent on coal. "By 2035, demand in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by one-third, while global growth is expected to be 6%
The report states that with the improvement of energy efficiency and the decrease in population, the demand for fossil fuels in Japan and South Korea will continue to decline. It is expected that these two countries will continue to rely on natural gas and strive to become technological leaders in hydrogen energy solutions.
In fact, clean energy is growing at an unprecedented rate, with new renewable energy generation capacity expected to exceed 560 gigawatts by 2023. According to IEA data, nearly $2 trillion in investment flows into the clean energy sector each year, almost twice the amount invested in new fossil fuel projects.
Similarly, China has also played an important role in this transformation. IEA Director Birol cited solar energy as an example and said, "By 2030, China's solar power generation alone may exceed the current total electricity demand
Due to the growth in China and Europe, the total supply of low emission energy reached a high point in 2023. China's renewable energy generation alone increased by 235 terawatt hours, equivalent to the total amount of renewable energy produced in Japan in the same year.
On July 14, 2023, in Henan Province, China, large patches of solar panels covered the mountain slopes.
China's performance in producing equipment required for renewable energy is also outstanding. The report states that China's production of solar panels and electric vehicle batteries accounts for over 80% of global production. China is expected to achieve its 2030 wind and solar energy installation targets ahead of schedule this year.
According to reports, the IEA report also focuses on electric vehicles. If countries follow established climate policies, the proportion of electric vehicle sales to global new car sales will increase from the current 20% to 50% by 2030
The article emphasizes that China has already achieved this goal this year, and it is expected that by 2030, nearly 70% of newly sold cars in China will be electric vehicles. And this data was only nearly 40% last year.
The rise of electric vehicles led by China is catching oil producers off guard, "the report said. In recent decades, China has been the engine of oil market growth, but this engine is now shifting towards electricity.
From October 8th to 15th, UN Under Secretary General and Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, Achim Steiner, paid an official visit to China, marking his first visit since 2019.
Steiner told reporters that China has successfully transitioned to a green economy today. It is expected that China's solar and wind power generation will exceed the total of other regions in the world next year. We also observed that in China's automobile market this year, for every two cars sold, one is an electric car. No one would have expected this five years ago
He stated that China's technological transformation under policy guidance has reached a certain scale, which is not only sufficient to support the green transformation of the Chinese economy, but also to help China become a global leader in green economy or green technology. Many parts of the world will benefit from China's green transformation, as the prices and costs of solar and wind energy have greatly decreased, and regions such as Africa can significantly increase their power generation in the next two to three decades. In a sense, these transformations are beneficial to both China and the international community.
